EU Referendum Audience Analysis – what the polls don’t tell you

In Political Diligence, Research Papers, Understanding Audiences by Fleur HicksLeave a Comment

Yesterday, we talked about how online audience behaviour by volume suggests that the Remain campaign is gaining momentum in the final stretch of the EU referendum vote and a full Brexit might just be avoided.

Today, whilst the polls are still citing a 50:50 split the online results look very similar to yesterday, with Remain holding a lead of 52%  and  Leave lobbyists returning favour with 48%  (excluding the undecideds).

But, to ensure a victory either way, what have audiences been responding to over time, and can a win be stimulated by pushing commentary and conversation either way?

Our full report can be found here, but in summary:

  •  Over time, when the polls have indicated that Leave is winning, both online AND offline, the main topics of their interest and press commentary have been Immigration and the NHS
  • When the polls have indicated that Remain is winning, both online AND offline, the main topics of their interest and press commentary have been the Economy and Business and Jobs and Security

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There may not be many surprises there, but the correlation between what the press are talking about and how that directly stimulates a response in the online audience as observed outside of the polls could prove interesting for campaign strategy in the final leg of the race.

As an aside, we also looked at the sentiment over the past month towards Conservative MPs within the Remain and Leave camps.  Teacher Unions may not agree, but it would seem that Michael Gove comes out on top in terms of positive:negative sentient ratio by a narrow margin.  In general however, there is no resounding confidence in either camp when it comes to leadership post-referendum.

Audience opinion soon Tory MPs over the past month - June 2016

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