referendum share of voice_200616

Brexit – can online audience data predict the result?

In Infographics, Research Papers, Thought Leadership by Fleur HicksLeave a Comment

Brexit: It’s the hot topic on everyone’s twitter feeds and everyone in the UK and mainland Europe is waiting with baited breath to understand what the results of the referendum hold for the future of the EU.

The FT aggregate and BBC Poll Tracker are citing an exact 50:50 split today, with marginal differentials between online and offline data.

So, which Brexit poll do we believe?

We thought we’d test out today’s stats based on volume and sentiment of online conversation within social media.  And today’s big data analysis shows a very marginal lead for the…. Remain Campaign

referendum share of voice_200616

With average daily growth of online conversation over the past month of 9.05%, the Remain supporters have finally mobilised to take over Leave’s lead.

Markets across the world have been responding to daily fluctuations of favour dramatically, with an estimated drop in value of up to 10% when ‘Leave’ leads and a consequent rise when ‘Remain’ gains traction. This had led some hedge funds to commission independent polls in order to mitigate the trade risk, live on Thursday.

So what is going to be most reliable to see how the swing will really go?  Can polling data with it’s relatively small sample sizes and all the niggles that come with opt-in surveys really be trusted?

We’ll publish our full report as to what topics motivate the rise and fall of the Remain/Leave audiences tomorrow – could the vote be swung either way by knowing what the public actually respond to? Importantly, can we predict the results based on the topics in discussion and how they strike a chord with audiences on both sides …

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